Trainer's Message
Thanks to your support, 1996 was a good year for the racing stable.
With the addition of winter training in Florida, the stable is positioned better than ever to win in 1997.
I am very pleased with the condition of the horses upon their return to Woodbine. Every Florida trained horse who has raced this spring at Woodbine, has won. Winter training in Florida does make a difference!! and it is a regular part of my training schedule. Another big change this year is the move from Barn 12 and 12A, to the new Barn 21. Although it feels a little bit like a new sub-division, in time it will be a stand out. Your horses deserve the best.
I cannot emphasize strongly enough, how important it is to purchase yearlings and two-year olds at this stage of the game. If you have any colleagues who would like to get into racing I would be happy to meet with them to discuss how they can get involved. I'd like to extend a warm welcome to all new owners to the stable, and wish everyone of you a prosperous and fun year.
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The Bounce Theory
by Neil A. Campbell
For four glorious days in the middle of July, American golfer John Daly conquered his mind, mastered his concentration and played well enough to win the British Open. Less than a week after earning the most storied trophy in golf, Daly was in the Netherlands for the significantly less important Dutch Open. He played poorly and finished nowhere near the leaders.
If this seems an odd way to begin a horse-racing discussion on the bounce theory then it shouldn't. Many have been skeptical about the now-vogue line of reasoning that claims a racehorse is likely to fare relatively poorly, to bounce, after a race that is among the best of its career. Really, there's nothing revolutionary about this school of thought. Whether its the golfer who has worked for months to a mental peak of the Olympic sprinter who has trained for years to attain the perfect physical edge, athletes have long slumped after reaching the summit.
The word bounce entered the lexicon of racetrack handicappers thanks to a New Yorker named Len Ragozin, a Harvard-educated journalist who left the craft in 1950s to concentrate on owning and analyzing horses. His speed figures - numbers assigned to reflect the quality of every race run by every horse - were plotted on sheers of graph paper. (The Sheets, now a trademark, have become another popular term in the racing dictionary). Ragozin realised that there were certain universal patterns in how horses ran, and the graph paper made those patterns easier to recognize. One was that a horse often bounced after an exceptional race.
For years, the results spawned by the immense research were known only to Ragozin and a few faithful clients. But in the mid 1980s, as the handicapping-information revolution hit full stride, The Sheets and their theories were gaining widespread acceptance. Sheets players in New York were cutting horses' odds in half and the fever spread to other major racing centres. Several successful horse players spend more than $35.00 U.S. per day to buy the Woodbine Sheets. A few horsemen, including Reade Baker, are also subscribers.
Most prefer the cheaper option of attempting to interpret the Beyer speed figures provided in the Daily Racing Form. The Beyer figures are not as sophisticated and only the past 10 races are provided instead of the career's worth that are plotted on The Sheets.
Andrew Beyer, the Washington Post columnist who popularized the use of basic speed figures, admitted in his book Beyer On Speed, that he used to snicker at the bounce theory. But thanks to the Daily Racing Form's database, Beyer changed his mind somewhat. One of the experiments he conducted was to ask the computer how a horse fared after running three consecutive improving speed figures. Seventy-one per cent, a stunning number, ran a poorer race.
Of course, the setback usually doesn't last forever. Often, the bounce is just a brief respite before the horse goes on slowly up the ladder again to bigger and better things.
So, the next time your horse runs poorly just when you thought it was a cinch, don't fret. Think about those four days when you yourself worked harder than you ever had before and how on the fifth day you could barely think straight. Bouncing can happen to the best of us.
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